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British fiscal uncertainty and weak economic data triggered expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the pound to fluctuate lower

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: British fiscal uncertainty and weak economic data triggered expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the pound to fluctuate lower." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

During Monday's trading session, the pound rebounded from a low of 1.3135 to around 1.3170, but it was still running within the shock range of the past few weeks and failed to achieve a real breakthrough.

Ongoing uncertainty about the UK's fiscal situation, coupled with investor bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the xm217.coming months, has left bulls lacking sustained momentum.

Recent political changes have also intensified exchange rate fluctuations.

The British fiscal policy is about to be adjusted. The government's sudden shift in the income tax plan has reduced the burden on households, but further amplified the market's concerns about the fiscal gap and increased the instability of the pound.

Some market analysts pointed out that the swing of fiscal policy makes it difficult for investors to assess the future economic path, thus limiting the pound's strong rebound space.

British economic data unexpectedly weakened, and interest rate cut expectations increased significantly

The recently released macro data in the UK showed obvious signs of weakness.

The unexpected decline in GDP in the third quarter and the poor performance of industrial production and manufacturing have heightened market concerns about continued pressure on the British economy.

These data strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December.

The current market generally believes that as long as British inflation remains on a downward trend, downward economic pressure may force the Bank of England to continue to implement easing policies.

Some institutional economists emphasized that the British manufacturing industry has not really bottomed out and may still drag down the overall economic performance in the xm217.coming months

The US dollar has gained support, further suppressing the pound's rebound space

As the US government reopens, dataImportant economic data delayed this week will be released intensively this week, especially non-farm payrolls (NFP) in September. The market generally expects that if the data is solid, it may further weaken expectations for a December interest rate cut, thereby supporting the dollar.

At the same time, the current market risk appetite is cautious, making the US dollar more popular because of its international reserve currency attributes.

The probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in December has dropped to 46%, a significant decrease from the previous 67%. Many officials within the Federal Reserve have recently emphasized the need to remain cautious about easing, which has allowed the U.S. dollar to maintain its structural advantage.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is still in a typical horizontal shock range. Although the price has been supported by buying orders in the short term, the overall trend is still weak.

The upper resistance is near 1.3200. If it breaks through, it is expected to open up the upward space. The lower support is 1.3100. If it falls below 1.3100, it will open up the downward space.

The current indicators show that the momentum is weak and there is a lack of continued buying cooperation. The probability of downward shock is still greater than that of upward shock.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: British fiscal uncertainty and weak economic data triggered interest rate cut expectations, causing the pound to fluctuate lower". It was carefully xm217.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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market analysis

British fiscal uncertainty and weak economic data triggered expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the pound to fluctuate lower

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market analysis

British fiscal uncertainty and weak economic data triggered expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the pound to fluctuate lower

Related News

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for a Reason